In dispatch of small letter of government of Lei Zaiji of chief economist Li Xun represents peaceful negotiable security, function of city of scanty solution of especially big city can explain a part the reason that price of house of 34 lines town rises, like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen such exceeding big city, want to restrict population strictly to flow into already, also want to restrict land to supply, but population is flowed into is market action, the money is flowed into is market action more.
Li Xun thunder thinks, to be being mixed around Beijing ferry look forward to, long triangle bead trigonometry is especially big the 34 lines city of urban periphery, itself puts in especially big city to buy house fund outside excessive effect, if again metropolitan circle of the country plans to support, still 34 lines city goes the one big job that inventory regards sex of supply side structure as reform, the motivation that house price rises is self-evident.
The analysis points out, 1~2 month is not the commodity house of key city to sell an area to grow 35.9% compared to the same period, heat of hasten of sale of 34 lines city, go inventory is quickened, replace likely one, second line city makes the point of growth with estate new this year market.
To this round of adjusting control, severe leap forward of chief inspector of research of easy house academy to ” daily economy news ” the reporter expresses, the target of this round of adjusting control has at 3 o’clock, the first it is to control the house price that rises too quickly, this is a the most immediate goal; The 2nd it is the control that passes pair of demand end, let supply accelerate follow-up; The 3rd it is to ensure finite room source is preferential the person that give the person that just needed to buy a house to perhaps say a room of illegally buy up.
In addition, the Chinese development that Tsinghua university China and Li Daokui of director of world economy research center conducted on March 18 expresses on high-level forum, this round be restricted to buy spring tide is preventive, advocate if prevent,in future a few months appear one round new house price rises, be an aspirin takes before having a fever.
Li Daokui points out, real estate needs reform of sex of supply side structure most. Specific say, want to increase the supply of housing, and had better be to increasing while land furnishs, want to increase local government to hold some property hold for a long time to measure, press market price case to rent, go satisfying this locality to be able to not afford a house temporarily, hire the housing demand of the with filling layer of house ability certainly from time to tome together, let them can expand a service for local economy, can live and work in peace and contentment.
Each district is started the most severe be restricted to buy make be opposite A influence general view
1, the strategy that bring a letter: Will more capital enters town of building of stock market and rather than
Adjusting control of heat city real estate upgrades, 34 lines real estate is sold however may not flameout. Heat city is such the landed adjusting control of second Beijing upgrades, accumulate those who extend purchasing power time, its effect is short-term sales volume drops, but short-term price won’t drop, medium-term rises anticipate won’t change. The adjusting control of the heat city such as 9~10 month Shanghai and its property are similar last year, had proved this is nodded.
More important is, after adjusting control upgraded last year, what we see is city of building of 34 lines town warms up, go inventory policy is gaining headway, actually, pull in heat city and difference of price of 34 lines city big later, urban house property buys heat to be restricted again, so its spill over effect can begin to show, and if heat city rises in price,still continueing, capital abandons his very hard enter 34 lines town.
As a whole, we think at present, estate of 34 lines city goes inventory is appearing the dawn of the hope, go inventory is oriented next policy to 34 lines still friendly, sale of estate of 34 lines city and investment exceed anticipate ability is this year the core problem that economy anticipates, to the judgement of this problem, we feel to should be not upgraded by the adjusting control of heat city real estate such as Beijing a change.
Although 34 lines real estate sells flameout, chinese economy also does not have hard-land risk, dweller asset configuration raises limit stock configuration. Since 2010, estate investment had experienced old adjustment, if go,inventory succeeds, criterion its hopeful is entered new round of ascendant cycle, if 34 lines city sells flameout, so estate investment is in at present low a space that also did not glide considerably, we believe to be in 19 hold greatly year, in exit, manufacturing industry investment anabiosises and below the support of capital construction investment that the government has sufficient capacity dominant, chinese economy does not have hard-land risk. To the influence more of the stock market we should consider asset configuration and capital flow direction.
The adjusting control of the heat city such as 9~10 month Shanghai upgraded last year, stock market greeted to rise situation, investor is right at the same time the stock market is looked into this year hopeful, its core logic is heat city adjusting control after upgrading, sales volume of whole floor city is met flameout, dweller asset configures a lieutenant general to more capital enters town of building of stock market and rather than. We think, pessimistic today investor should not forget hopeful at that time logic.
2, wide hair is politic: The market still does not have the requirement that adjusts considerably
The Central Bank happened when Zhou Tong originally monetary policy is tightened up further and policy of landed adjusting control raises the price of the commodities further, field of A stock market also encountered in Zhou Wu the biggest this year day is spent drop, does investor fear next the market can appear to be adjusted apparently downward?
The monetary policy to the Central Bank is tightened up and landed adjusting control raises the price of the commodities, we think to depend on can causing fluidity to tighten up truly to the influence of the stock market run win main area improvement to look to had not arrived at present the hour of changeover.
The rate that the race that the core drive factor that affects the market currently is main area and fluidity tightens up when fluidity only is rapid when the speed that improves at main area, the market just can face the pressure that adjusts downward truly.
The Central Bank is in a Zhou Si go up again moved go against counter-purchase interest rate and MLF interest rate, will objectively see this belong to the signal that fluidity tightens up of course.
But on the other hand we want to see, 10 years when represent market money rate period national debt yield is in twice the attune on the Central Bank is gone against this year after counter-purchasing interest rate, did not follow however because although go against,counter-purchase interest rate,go up 20 BP already were moved on accumulative total, but will arrive in November from last year this year in January, 10 years period national debt yield had gone up considerably 70 BP, the monetary policy with this current specification is adjusted be shifted to an earlier date to react by the market already, had not appeared exceed expectant fluidity to tighten up; And to policy of landed adjusting control raise the price of the commodities again, will look at present still the method of adjusting control of administration of bureau be confined to, and did not touch the change of monetary policy (the limitation that spends to mortgage loan specified amount for instance and the adjustment that lend interest rate to the room) , because this also is returned temporarily,move sexual environment to bring immediate impact without convection.
3, the sea understands strategy: Real estate is new politics without hindering spring prices
Epicycle spring prices continues, close may not of house property policy is benefit sky.
Investor of the half moon on March has two to be anxious greatly all the time: Was March beautiful couplet store add interest interest empty A, 2 it is two meetings end Shi Weiwen motivation to disappear market suffer a setback. Sky of this two big profit is paper tiger.
Policy of Beijing room city was tightened up again on March 17, rise head pay proportion, and admit borrow subscribe, a few cities such as Guangzhou also come on stage slant tight policy. We think, need not be anxious at this o’clock too, landed policy slants to be opposite closely stock market may not is benefit sky. The relation between the stock market and room city has two to conduct method, the positive that is main area closes, the 2 negative that are financing area close. Since 2012, the negative that the positive of both and main area closes to had been less than financing area closes, so effect of the seesaw between room city and stock market increases, this results from the real estate after population structure produces change is abate to economic consequence.
Landed policy is tight, if cause monetary policy finally to tighten, certain to the stock market benefit is empty. Did not come here at present degree, because the city uses the policy of plan,landed adjusting control still basically is.
上海千花社区 ry gold is politic: 317 real estate are new politics conduce to capital flowing to the stock market
317 new politics come on stage become the near future to basically see a drop, can drive to the stock market by estate market in capital of certain level admiral.
After governmental working report edits this year, going inventory and part of estate market adjusting control, complemented to be bought soundly hire price of house of town of heat of the housing system that develop simultaneously, keep within limits to rise too quickly. Centrally emphasizes a building again and again is use, either below the background that uses those who fry, the near future has many cities to upgrade adjusting control measure, have city of county of heat city periphery already, also have provincial heat city, the city that be like another name for Jiangxi Province, Qingdao; And already published the Hangzhou of measure, Nanjing, Nanchang formerly to wait to also tighten up adjusting control further. Beijing is new the boots of adjusting control of city of round of building also at this Zhou Wu be born, carry out identify a room again borrow upgrade be restricted to borrow measure, move second year in high school flatlet head pays proportion, time-out extends 25 years to be borrowed with last person rooms.
Our Ceng Zainian spends A in investing politic report, mention: Estate market and field of A stock market have effect of the seesaw on certain level. Below the big setting that picks up stage by stage in Euramerican economy, what the farther hasten of policy of domestic estate adjusting control fathers and can not cause the market to drop to economic bluff type is anxious, policy of contrary estate adjusting control comes on stage centrally short-term the pressure that conduces to control housing price rising too quickly, can drive to the stock market in sex of level of capital of certain level admiral. Of course, short-term and such, in long-term of seesaw of this kind of capital durative remain to observe.